Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got something to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
